Mark Twain and the Best Gambling Advice You May Ever Hear

Mark Twain and the Best Gambling Advice You May Ever Hear

“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it’s time to pause and reflect.” -Mark Twain

Mark Twain has been called the father of American literature. Rarely has Twain been credited with giving us great gambling insight. Pittsburgh Phil, Barry Meadow, and Andrew Beyer, yes; Mark Twain, not so much. Yet, you could build a solid betting philosophy around Twain’s quote. In the horseplayer’s world, you may call it taking a stand or betting against the favorite. Though we know the public is right the majority of the time (see James Surowiecki’s book The Wisdom of Crowds), we take no pride in picking 3-5 favorites with every other Tom, Dick and Harry. The successful bettor is looking to identify an edge and then bet it. If we want to gain in betting, what we are going to maximize is not the number of wins, but the payoff. And that is why it is important to listen to Mark Twain and be willing to think unconventionally.

“The central premise of parimutuel wagering,” Steve Crist tells us, “is to get a better price from the other bettors than something deserves to be.” For me, the 2013 Arlington Classic was a textbook example. After spending three days handicapping the Arlington card and after hearing Tom LaMarra make some compelling arguments for General Election to win the Arlington Classic, I could not believe that this horse-who was 5-1 on the morning line- was being overlooked. Though LaMarra selected General Election on The Bloodhorse’s That Handicapping Show, several of the experts were looking elsewhere. Pete Denk made a compelling case for Brown Almighty, Jessica Pacheco liked Bambazonki, and Brisnet.com’s The Handicapper’s Edge chose Procurement. Indeed, this was a tough race to handicap and a tough card overall. I had dreams of putting together a 50 cent Pick 5 ticket, but there were several races that were too dicey. And I lacked a key horse to single anywhere on the card. My plan B ended up being a few rolling Pick 3s prior to the Arlington Classic which all fizzled out on a day that saw several longshots win at Arlington. But everything turned around with a straight win bet on General Election.

Mark Ripple writes, “As handicappers, we find value plays in horses the general public overlooks.” The general public was definitely overlooking General Election. This horse was 5-1 on the morning line. My Brisnet PPs and LaMarra both pointed out that General Election was bred to like the turf. And I liked LaMarra’s angle of playing the horse that was trying the turf for the first time. Of course, WinStar and Joe Rocco Jr. were positive factors as well. And you had to notice the fact that Kellyn Gorder was winning at a 28% clip when shipping in. But I also liked the fact that the horse had faced good company- Triple Crown horses Black Onyx, Mylute, Giant Finish, and Departing, along with a decent horse named Pick of the Litter. Regardless of what angle-or angles- you were using, this WinStar horse was a classic overlay.

“Imagination is what sets you aside from every other person in the grandstand,” writes handicapper Brad Free. “If you don’t have a unique opinion- if you’re not able to stand alone from doing what everybody else does- you’re in the wrong game.” Admiral Kitten, Fordubai, and Procurement were taking alot of action at the betting windows as the three favorites. And that is where the advice of Steve Klein comes in. In his book The Power of Early Speed, Klein writes, “When you concentrate most of your bets on horses who are among the first three betting choices, your long-term results will forever be locked into a narrow, unprofitable range. You are kept in check by a low ceiling of possible payoffs.” James Quinn states it another way when he writes, “Never play the underlays because even when you win you lose.”

I don’t want to debate whether you should bet the favorite or not. Instead, I want to point to the advice of Twain in order to profit long-term. Mark Ripple writes, “Always think independently of the crowd; bet what others cannot or are afraid to bet, and you will prosper.” And anyone who bet General Election to win prospered to the tune of $28.20 for a $2 win wager. The Arlington Classic demonstrated an example of betting against the favorite. The authors of Six Secrets of Successful Bettors write, “That’s where the biggest opportunities lie. When you don’t like the favorite and you have a positive opinion on another horse in the race, then that’s a chance to make a real score.” The godfather of modern handicapping, Steve Crist, writes, “I’m usually looking to beat favorites because that’s how you make scores, and making scores quicker than you give them back is how you come out ahead.”

Pause and reflect on the Twain quote the next time you find yourself on the same side as the majority. And remember Crist’s simple wisdom. Focus on making scores quicker than you give them back in order to come out ahead. In Fooled By Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb writes, “I love taking small losses. I just need my winners to be large.” I lived that philosophy out on the Saturday of the Arlington Classic. I withstood small losses on horses at Churchill and Hollywood. And I had two smaller Pick 3s fade earlier in the day at Arlington. But one discrepancy between my line and the track odds made for a large win in the Arlington Classic. And I am fine with small losses, when my winners pay $28.20.

About the Author

Scott Raymond is a writer, a horseplayer, and an avid reader. He is the author of the popular posts “Why We Don’t Trust Tipsters,” “The Six Best Horse Racing Books of All-Time,” and “A Tale of Two Benches.” His all-time favorite horses are Monarchos and General Quarters. Follow Raymond on Twitter @onehorsestable.
He can also be reached by e-mail at onehorsestable at gmail dot com.
[Scott Raymond]
Scott Raymond