2014 NFL Betting Against the Public Report
Bet Labs, NFL
by David Solar on September 3, 2014
Chiefs Colts Football - Andrew Luck
Before every season, the team at Sports Insights publishes a series of Betting Against the Public articles which highlights the sweet spots for contrarian betting. The ideal range differs from sport to sport, however, for NFL betting we have frequently discussed the 80/20 rule which encourages bettors to take the most lopsided bet games on the schedule. This contrarian philosophy has been a key component of our Best Bets strategy.
Since the start of the 2009-10 NFL season, our Best Bets have gone 234-196 (54.4%) for +20.5 units won. That means by simply following these bets a $100/game bettor would be up $2,050. The table below displays the year-to-year breakdown of these picks.
Year
Record
Winning Percentage
Units Won
2013-14 44-36 55.0% +4.7
2012-13 33-29 53.2% +1.7
2011-12 33-22 60.0% +8.7
2010-11 41-37 52.6% +1.0
2009-10 83-72 53.5% +4.4
As you can see, our NFL Best Bets have been profitable in each of these seasons and our betting against the public philosophy has been a large part of this success. The NFL attracts a large number of “square” or “public” bettors, and these largely uninformed individuals can help create artificial line value for sharp bettors.
We’ve noticed that outside of baseball, home field advantage seems to be largely overvalued by bettors. While fans anticipate that a loud crowd will impact the road team, baseball is the only sport where home teams have a tangible advantage (teams constructed to utilize unique ballpark dimensions and last at-bats).
Using our Bet Labs software, we were able to quickly learn that NFL visitors have gone 1386-1331 (51%) ATS. Although this edge is not enough to cover the vig at most sportsbooks, it gave us a good starting point for our betting against the public system.
The table below displays how road teams have fared for various public betting ranges.
Betting Percentage
ATS Record
Units Won
ROI
>40% 407-380 +4.27 0.5%
>35% 263-248 -0.42 -0.1%
>30% 139-130 +1.2 0.4%
>25% 57-39 +14.62 15.2%
It’s interesting to note that visitors receiving less than 25% are actually more profitable than our highly discussed 80/20 system. Since 2005, teams receiving between 0 and 20% of spread bets have gone 96-75 for +16.17 units and a 9.5% return on investment (ROI). If you focus solely on visitors, the system produces a 13-8 ATS record with +4.16 units won and a 19.8% ROI. While it’s nice to see the ROI more than double, the small sample size is a definite red flag.
[Want to create your own winning betting systems? Try Bet Labs now for only $49!]
The screenshot below, which is taken directly from Bet Labs, highlights the value of betting on visitors receiving less than 25% of public bets.
NFL Betting Against
Over the past months, we have added a number of new and informative filters to Bet Labs. One filter we have added simply asks the question, “Did this team make the playoffs in the previous season?” Since we always advocate that bettors buy on bad news and sell on good, we chose to examine teams who missed the playoffs in the previous season. This addition led to a 52-32 ATS record with +17.07 units won and a 20.3% ROI.
At the time of publication, no visitors were receiving less than 25% of public bets. However, the Indianapolis Colts are currently receiving just 28% of spread bets for their week 1 matchup in Colorado against the Denver Broncos. We will continue to monitor this game to see if it falls into our range, but all bettors can view odds, public betting trends and more on our new free NFL odds page.
[Our NFL Week 1 Best Bet picks are now available! Get all 5 picks for only $79!]
If you are interested in building your own data-driven betting systems, please contact our Customer Service Department at 877-838-2853 or by email at help@sportsinsights.com to schedule a free live demo of our Bet Labs software.
$79 Introductory Offer
Want to learn more about sports betting? Sign up to receive our Blog Articles.
Having trouble finding something? Take a look at our Sitemap.
All information © Copyright 1999-2014 Sports Insights, Inc,. All Rights Reserved
Bet Labs, NFL
by David Solar on September 3, 2014
Chiefs Colts Football - Andrew Luck
Before every season, the team at Sports Insights publishes a series of Betting Against the Public articles which highlights the sweet spots for contrarian betting. The ideal range differs from sport to sport, however, for NFL betting we have frequently discussed the 80/20 rule which encourages bettors to take the most lopsided bet games on the schedule. This contrarian philosophy has been a key component of our Best Bets strategy.
Since the start of the 2009-10 NFL season, our Best Bets have gone 234-196 (54.4%) for +20.5 units won. That means by simply following these bets a $100/game bettor would be up $2,050. The table below displays the year-to-year breakdown of these picks.
Year
Record
Winning Percentage
Units Won
2013-14 44-36 55.0% +4.7
2012-13 33-29 53.2% +1.7
2011-12 33-22 60.0% +8.7
2010-11 41-37 52.6% +1.0
2009-10 83-72 53.5% +4.4
As you can see, our NFL Best Bets have been profitable in each of these seasons and our betting against the public philosophy has been a large part of this success. The NFL attracts a large number of “square” or “public” bettors, and these largely uninformed individuals can help create artificial line value for sharp bettors.
We’ve noticed that outside of baseball, home field advantage seems to be largely overvalued by bettors. While fans anticipate that a loud crowd will impact the road team, baseball is the only sport where home teams have a tangible advantage (teams constructed to utilize unique ballpark dimensions and last at-bats).
Using our Bet Labs software, we were able to quickly learn that NFL visitors have gone 1386-1331 (51%) ATS. Although this edge is not enough to cover the vig at most sportsbooks, it gave us a good starting point for our betting against the public system.
The table below displays how road teams have fared for various public betting ranges.
Betting Percentage
ATS Record
Units Won
ROI
>40% 407-380 +4.27 0.5%
>35% 263-248 -0.42 -0.1%
>30% 139-130 +1.2 0.4%
>25% 57-39 +14.62 15.2%
It’s interesting to note that visitors receiving less than 25% are actually more profitable than our highly discussed 80/20 system. Since 2005, teams receiving between 0 and 20% of spread bets have gone 96-75 for +16.17 units and a 9.5% return on investment (ROI). If you focus solely on visitors, the system produces a 13-8 ATS record with +4.16 units won and a 19.8% ROI. While it’s nice to see the ROI more than double, the small sample size is a definite red flag.
[Want to create your own winning betting systems? Try Bet Labs now for only $49!]
The screenshot below, which is taken directly from Bet Labs, highlights the value of betting on visitors receiving less than 25% of public bets.
NFL Betting Against
Over the past months, we have added a number of new and informative filters to Bet Labs. One filter we have added simply asks the question, “Did this team make the playoffs in the previous season?” Since we always advocate that bettors buy on bad news and sell on good, we chose to examine teams who missed the playoffs in the previous season. This addition led to a 52-32 ATS record with +17.07 units won and a 20.3% ROI.
At the time of publication, no visitors were receiving less than 25% of public bets. However, the Indianapolis Colts are currently receiving just 28% of spread bets for their week 1 matchup in Colorado against the Denver Broncos. We will continue to monitor this game to see if it falls into our range, but all bettors can view odds, public betting trends and more on our new free NFL odds page.
[Our NFL Week 1 Best Bet picks are now available! Get all 5 picks for only $79!]
If you are interested in building your own data-driven betting systems, please contact our Customer Service Department at 877-838-2853 or by email at help@sportsinsights.com to schedule a free live demo of our Bet Labs software.
$79 Introductory Offer
Want to learn more about sports betting? Sign up to receive our Blog Articles.
Having trouble finding something? Take a look at our Sitemap.
All information © Copyright 1999-2014 Sports Insights, Inc,. All Rights Reserved
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