Del Mar Closing Day Top Play: Maiden American Pharoah in the G1 Futurity

Del Mar Closing Day Top Play: Maiden American Pharoah in the G1 Futurity

Del Mar Closing Day Top Play: Maiden American Pharoah in the G1 Futurityby Justin Finch

>Del Mar / September 3/ Race 8  / 5:35 PDT
The closing day Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity has attracted a field of nine horses to go seven furlongs on the Poly. At morning line odds of 6-1, American Pharoah looks like good value to us in this race.

A $300,000 purchase, American Pharoah trained in a manner that elicited raves from the private clockers and accordingly was bet down to 7-5 in his debut. But he ran into a buzz saw in Om, proved no match for him on the turn, and faded, finishing a distant fifth. Still, our speed figures had Om's performance so strong that even an also-ran could end up recording a strong speed figure. And we gave American Pharoah a TFUS Speed Figure of 98, which is a faster figure than any other horse in this race has ever run.

This fast speed figure is attributable in part to the pace that American Pharoah was facing. Futilely chasing Om, he earned pace figures of 101 and 109 before seeing his final-time figure sink to a 92. The difference between this 92 and his TFUS Speed Figure of 98 is our assessment of the effect on American Pharoah of running those fractions early.

Today, the TFUS Pace Projector shows American Pharoah on a clear early lead in a race it designates as favoring horses on or near the early lead. However, since trainer Bob Baffert is removing the blinkers that American Pharoah wore in his debut, we would not be surprised to see American Pharoah a little more relaxed in the first part of the race. But, in any event, he should be in a forward position.

Baffert has had a slow meet by his standards, but he has picked it up recently, winning several races, and he gets a 98 rating with second-time-starters and a 99 rating in two-year-old stakes races. In other words, today, Baffert is doing what he does best, and in this son of Pioneerof the Nile, he seems to have quite a bit to work with. And for good measure, American Pharoah has been training superbly since his debut. He is our selection to win the Del Mar Futurity.

The play: Win bet on American Pharoah.

Exactas: American Pharoah over Inexcess Time, Henry's Holiday, and Skyway.

Trifecta: American Pharoah on top, a spread in the two-hole, and Inexcess Time in the three-hole

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