NFL Week 5 Betting Recap Sports Insights

NFL Week 5 Betting Recap
Sports Insights / by David Solar / 1 day ago

- This week we saw another blowout in the Thursday Night Football game with Green Bay defeating Minnesota 42-10. The average margin of victory in Thursday games this year is now 29 ppg.

– Following New England’s impressive victory on Sunday night, Tom Brady is 26-9 against the spread (ATS) following a loss. He’s also 8-0 ATS when getting less than 40% of spread bets.

– Since 2003 Brady has also been the most profitable quarterback to bet on with a 97-63 ATS record and +31 units won. Peyton Manning (90-66, +20.8 units) is second on the list.

– The Patriots, who were 1-point underdogs against the Bengals on Sunday night, have gone 17-8-2 ATS (+8.6 units) and 14-13 (+8.8 units) as moneyline dogs dating back to ’03.

– Last week’s most bet NFL games:

Bengals-Patriots
Jets-Chargers
Cardinals-Broncos
Bills-Lions

– Some of the most notable line moves on Sunday morning included:

Bills +6.5 to +5.5 (won straight up 17-14)
Bengals -1 to -2.5 (lost 43-17)
Browns +1 to -1 (won 29-28)

- Pro’s versus Joe’s via Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) — Note: Some of these lines were bet early in the week and were not available on Sunday.

PROS  Rams, Texans, Bills, Ravens, Jets

JOES: Bears, Eagles, Saints, Steelers, Chargers

– The biggest line moves from open to close include: (via Pinnacle)

St. Louis +7 to +3.5
Buffalo +7 to +4.5
Cincinnati pick ‘em to -2.5
Cleveland +1 to -1

– The early games were insanely competitive as all nine 1 o’clock games were within 1 score (including four ties) with less than 2 minutes remaining.

– In Week 5 favorites went 10-4 ATS pushing them to 37-36 on the season. Home teams went 9-5 ATS during Week 5 and are now 37-35 on the season. Teams coming off a loss went 6-7 ATS in Week 5 and have dropped to 29-27 on the year.

– Unders went 8-7 during Week 5 but on the season the under has gone just 36-40.

– Key injuries to monitor this week:

Lions WR Calvin Johnson, Ankle, Doubtful
Broncos RB Montee Ball, Groin, Out Indefinitely
Cardinals QB Carson Palmer, Shoulder, Questionable
Titans QB Jake Locker, Hand, Questionable
Rams RB Zac Stacy, Calf, Questionable
Lions RB Reggie Bush, Ankle, Questionable
Saints TE Jimmy Graham, Shoulder, Questionable
Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater, Ankle, Probable
Giants RB Rashad Jennings, Knee, Out
Patriots CB Darrelle Revis, Hamstring, Probable
Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson, Ankle, Probable
49ers TE Vernon Davis, Back,
Questionable.

Biggest NFL Super Bowl odds risers:

Chargers +1400 to +1000 Broncos +500 to +450 Giants +5600 to +3000 Packers +1500 to +1200

— SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) October 6, 2014

Biggest NFL Super Bowl odds declines: Lions +2500 to +4200 Eagles +1600 to +2000 Bears +4000 to +7000 Falcons +4000 to +6000

— SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) October 6, 2014

- Notable Week 6 lines include: (via Pinnacle)

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-8)
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at St. Louis Rams
 – For the latest odds, public betting trends and more, make sure to view our free NFL odds page.  

Updated NFL Futures via 5Dimes #Broncos +440 #Seahawks +450 #Chargers +1000 #Packers +1200 #49ers +1200 #Patriots +1250 #Bengals +1350 — SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) October 7, 2014

– Most likely Super Bowl matchups (via 5Dimes)

DEN/SEA +671
SD/SEA +1640
DEN/GB +1835
NE/SEA +1900
CIN/SEA +1940
DEN/SF +1940
DEN/PHI +2875
IND/SEA +3125
DEN/NO +3875
SD/GB +4275

– Entering the week the favorites for Offensive Rookie of the Year at Bovada was highlighted by: Kelvin Benjamin (+250), Brandon Cooks (+300), Blake Bortles (+400), Teddy Bridgewater (+600) and Sammy Watkins (+750).

– In early Week 6 action the most popular public teams were:

Denver Broncos -8 (83% of spread bets at New York Jets)
San Diego Chargers -7 (80% of spread bets at Oakland Raiders)
New England Patriots -3 (78% of spread bets at Buffalo)
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (77% of spread bets at Houston Texans)

– Before the start of the season we tweeted the following prop bet:

Peyton Manning, who has 491 career TD passes, is listed at +110 to break the all-time record (508) by Week 8 | Week 9 or later is -140

— SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) August 27, 2014

– Through five games, Manning has tallied 12 passing touchdowns bringing his career total to 503. That means Manning needs just five touchdowns over the next three games for bettors to cash on the under (+110).