High Quality Stocks In Developed Markets Jan. 1, 2015 6:24 AM ET | by Baijnath Ramraika, CFA

High Quality Stocks In Developed Markets
Jan. 1, 2015 6:24 AM ET | by Baijnath Ramraika, CFA

This article is based on the working paper we published on ssrn. The working paper can be accessed by clicking here.

The risk of paying too high a price for good quality stocks - while a real one - is not the chief hazard confronting the average buyer of securities. Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low quality securities at times of favourable business conditions.

- Benjamin Graham

It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.
- Warren E. Buffett

As the above two quotes reflect, the idea of buying high quality stocks has been around for quite some time. However, it has gained renewed momentum over the past few years driven by spectacular crashes experienced subsequent to the technology boom and during the global financial crisis. This is also reflected in academic research. Over the last few years, several academics have weighed in on the quality factor and many papers have been written trying to identify criteria for defining high quality stocks. Further, as it is becoming widely accepted as an anomaly, quality is now being designated by many researchers as a fifth factor explaining investment returns in addition to the four widely accepted factors, namely beta, size, momentum, and value. This development is in sync with our long held belief that quality is a distinct investment style.

This paper is related to a large literature as a number of studies have explored returns to factors such as profitability, relationship between accounting and economic profits, and leverage. Robert Novy-Marx (2013) showed that stocks with high gross profitability as measured by gross profits to assets, outperform. Chan, et. al. (2006) shows that difference between accounting earnings and cash flows is negatively associated with future returns. George and Hwang (2010) shows that stocks with low leverage have high alpha.

In this paper, we discuss the investment returns of a simple quantitative process from selecting high quality stocks. We believe that in valuing high quality stocks, market participants systematically underestimate the duration of competitive advantage such that the valuation premium assigned isn't sufficient to account for the difference between the business value creation potential of a high quality business as compared to the average business. Indeed, a basket of high quality stocks generates significantly superior investment returns compared to publicly traded benchmarks and does so with significantly lower risk.

Section 1. High Quality Stocks - The Multi-Act Way

At Multi-Act, we have spent in excess of fifteen years developing and perfecting our process of identifying high quality stocks. Our internal research process assigns every company followed by us a quality rating, referred to as 'Grade'. There are several components of our process some of which lend themselves to quantitative modelling while others don't. A crucial component of our classification of a business as high quality is the existence of "sustainable" competitive advantage, a component that does not lend itself to quantitative modelling.

It is important to note that the existence of competitive advantage and sustainability of this competitive advantage are the most important criteria in our classification of a business as quality. This is driven by our assertion that much of the investment returns that accrue to investors from quality factor depend on the ability of the business to persist with its supernormal returns on capital which in turn depends on its ability to keep competition at bay. Given our inability to model this component, we believe that our manually selected list of quality businesses will likely generate superior risk-adjusted performance as compared to the quantitatively selected basket that is discussed here.

Section 2. Quality Factors

There are some key characteristics of a high quality business. A high quality business generates superior returns on capital - stronger the competitive advantage, lesser the impact of competition, higher the returns on capital. Returns on capital of such businesses tend to be persistently fat. Further, such businesses have a very healthy relationship between their accounting profits and their economic profits. Finally, we like our high quality businesses to possess good balance sheets such that financial risk isn't a significant factor driving our investment returns or risk.

High Quality Stocks - Determinants of Quality

Source: MAEG

As shown in Exhibit 1, Multi-Act's process of classification of a business as a high quality business includes three characteristics that lend them to quantitative analysis. Note that our research process utilizes a multiplicity of measures within each characteristic. However, for the sake of simplicity, we have chosen one measure to represent each quality characteristic.

For the purposes of this paper, we measure returns on capital by return on equity (RoE). Fat return on equity indicates existence of competitive advantage and the persistence of this variable suggests sustainability of the competitive advantage. It is important to keep in mind that it is possible for the management of a company to manage its return on equity. To the extent that earnings are manipulated, they will impact return on equity as well. Further, return on equity is also affected by corporate transactions including buybacks, acquisitions, restructuring, etc. To ensure that the earnings component of the return on equity is not a result of financial creativity, we use a quality of earnings factor namely free cash flow over earnings (FCF/EPS). Over the years, we have found that this measure helps us filter out companies with suspect accounting numbers. Finally, we measure financial safety by net debt over free cash flow (ND/FCF). This measure indicates the number of years of free cash flow that is needed to repay the debt. Table 1 provides summary statistics on each of the quality factors by country.

Section 3. Data and Quality Factors

Data Sources

Our data sample consists of 5,262 companies covering 23[1] countries between 1997 and 2013. The 23 markets correspond to countries contained in the MSCI World Developed Index as of December 31, 2013. All data including fundamentals and price data are from Factset Global data feed with returns calculated in USD with currency risk hedged away. We utilize fundamental data reported anywhere in calendar year t-1 in April of calendar year t such that there is a minimum of three month lag from the end of the fiscal year of the company. Table 2 provides summary statistics on number of companies and market capitalization by country.

Since the cash flow data is available from 1989 and some of our fundamental variables require minimum five-year data availability, our sample could start at the earliest from 1994. However, given the limited number of companies which satisfied our data requirements, our model starts from 1997.

Section 4. Methodology

Before proceeding with our calculations, we perform two exclusions, firstly for size and secondly for suitability and data applicability. We exclude all companies with market capitalization less than USD 1 billion. This number is deflated at 6% p.a. for years prior to 2013. The objective of this exclusion is to minimize size factor's contribution to our investment returns.

Further, we exclude some industries that in our assessment do not lend themselves to existence of sustainable competitive advantages[2]. This is not to say that there cannot be a business with sustainable competitive advantage in these industries. However, it is our assessment that the probability of finding a business with sustainable competitive advantage in these industries is significantly lower. Further, calculating cash flow data presents a practical problem with some of these industries, especially in the case of banking and insurance businesses where cash flow is affected by changes to loans, investments, and deposits and thus loses its sanctity. Accordingly, we have excluded these industries from our samples.

We calculate quality factors discussed earlier for all the remaining stocks in our data sample. We then apply absolute cutoffs, levels that a business must meet in order to qualify as a high quality business. Businesses that meet these cutoffs are then sorted by their market capitalization in a descending order. Finally, we select fifty of the largest businesses from all qualifying businesses as our quality basket.

Using the characteristics above, we create a basket of fifty high quality stocks every year and test the performance of the basket so created over a period of seventeen years, from 1997 to 2013.

Section 5. Risk and Returns of the Quality Basket

We now turn our attention to risk and returns of high quality stocks. Figure 1 shows the performance of the high quality stocks basket on a net basis[3] as compared to that of MSCI World Developed market index. Given that we selected our high quality stocks basket from a universe of all companies from developed markets, we consider this index to be the appropriate benchmark. The high quality stocks basket generated compounded annual return of 7.4% as compared to 4.3% for MSCI World Developed index. What is more, annualized standard deviations of monthly returns were lower for the high quality stocks basket at 12.6% as compared to 16.1% for the benchmark index. Over the same time frame, S&P 500 generated returns of 5.3% p.a. with annualized standard deviation of 15.8%.

(click to enlarge)
High Quality Stocks - Investment Returns to Quality, Net

Figure 2 shows performance of the high quality stocks basket on a gross basis[4] as compared to that of the benchmark index. The high quality stocks basket generated compounded annual return of 9.4% as compared to 6.6% for the benchmark index. The annualized standard deviations of returns were lower for the high quality stocks basket at 12.7% as compared to 16.1% for the benchmark index. Over the same time frame, S&P 500 generated returns of 7.3% p.a. with annualized standard deviation of 16.0%.

(click to enlarge)
High Quality Stocks - Investment Returns to Quality, Gross

Figure 3 shows drawdown[5] profiles of the high quality stocks basket and of the benchmark index. Clearly, the high quality stocks basket is significantly less risky when compared to MSCI World Developed index as drawdowns aren't only shallower; recovery to peak is quicker as well. We estimate the high quality stocks basket's relative risk to be 55%[6] of that of the benchmark index.

(click to enlarge)
High Quality Stocks - Drawdowns for High Quality Stocks

Section 6. Risk and Returns of MAEG's "Manual" Quality Basket

As stated earlier, a key component of our high quality stocks selection process does not lend itself to modelling. In this section, we analyze performance of our actual quality basket, a basket that has to pass through our human analytical rigor as well as our systematic process. We refer to this basket as the 100% list.

Figure 4 shows performance of the 100% list of high quality stocks on a net basis[7] as compared to that of the benchmark index. The 100% list of high quality stocks generated compounded annual return of 13.5% as compared to 4.3% for benchmark index. The annualized standard deviations of returns were lower for the 100% index of high quality stocks at 14.8% as compared to 16.1% for the benchmark index. Over the same time frame, S&P 500 generated returns of 5.3% p.a. with annualized standard deviation of 15.8%.

$100 invested in April of 1997 in MAEG's 100% index of high quality stocks would have grown to almost $883 by June 2014 as compared to $206 in MSCI World Developed Index and $245 in S&P 500 Index.

(click to enlarge)
High Quality Stocks - Investment Returns to MAEG's High Quality Index, Net

Figure 5 shows drawdown profiles of the 100% index of high quality stocks and of the benchmark index. Clearly, the 100% Index of high quality stocks is significantly less risky when compared to MSCI World Developed index as drawdowns aren't only shallower; recovery to peak is quicker as well. We estimate the quality basket's relative risk to be 57% of that of the benchmark index.

(click to enlarge)
High Quality Stocks - Drawdowns for MAEG's High Quality Index

Summary

Multi-Act's definition of high quality stocks includes quantitative as well as qualitative variables with sustainability of competitive advantage being a key factor.
A simple three factor quantitative process for selecting high quality stocks outperforms the publicly traded benchmarks and does so with lower risk.
MAEG's manually selected list of high quality stocks - 100% Index - generated substantially superior performance even when compared to the performance of quantitatively selected high quality stocks.

Table 1. Comparison of Quality Measures

This table shows average quality measures by country for the investment universe as well as for the quality basket. Each year, we calculate averages for the three quality measures for the investment universe selected after making size-based and industry-based exclusions and for the quality basket comprised of fifty stocks. We utilize fundamental data reported anywhere in calendar year t-1 in April of calendar year t such that there is a minimum of three month lag from the end of the fiscal year of the company. This table reports the average of each year's equal-weighted average of quality measures between 1997 and 2014.

High Quality Stocks - Countrywise Quality Factors

Table 2. Number of Companies and Market Capitalization

This table shows yearly average of total number of companies and yearly average of market capitalization for the investment universe as well as for the quality basket, by country.

High Quality Stocks - Descriptive Statistics

References

Novy-Marx, Robert (2013), "The Other Side of Value: The Gross Profitability Premium," Journal of Financial Economics

Chan, K., Chan, L.K.C., Jegadeesh, N., Lakonishok, J., (2006), "Earnings quality and stock returns," Journal of Business

George, Thomas J., and C.Y. Hwang (2010), "A Resolution of the Distress Risk and Leverage Puzzles in the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Economics

[1] The countries included are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and United States.

[2] Following industries were excluded for the purposes of this paper: Aluminum, Steel, Pharmaceuticals: Generic, Pharmaceuticals: Major, Pharmaceuticals: Other, Financial Conglomerates, Investment Banks/Brokers, Life/Health Insurance, Major Banks, Multi-Line Insurance, Property/Casualty Insurance, Real Estate Investment Trusts, Regional Banks, Specialty Insurance, Biotechnology, Apparel/Footwear Retail, Major Telecommunications, Electronics/Appliance Stores, and Specialty Stores.

[3] Excluding dividends.

[4] Inclusive of dividends.

[5] The peak-to-trough decline during a specific record period of an investment, fund or commodity. A drawdown is usually quoted as the percentage between the peak and the trough. (Source: Investopedia)

[6] Worst drawdown of the quality basket is 35% while that of the benchmark index is 54%. The relative risk is estimated as log(1-35%)/log(1-54%) = 55%. At 55% of the benchmark's risk, relative risk of the quality basket is about half that of the benchmark index. What this means is that it takes about two back-to-back losses of 35% to produce one 55% loss. For more on this, refer http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc141013.htm

[7] Excluding dividends.

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You Know Your A Gambler When... PickMonitor Forum

You Know Your A Gambler When...
PickMonitor Forum / 338 days ago
Haha!


15) Cardio workout means walking from wherever you parked the car (normally valet) into the sportsbook.


14) The majority of people you follow on twitter can’t use their real picture or name for fear of social and professional consequences.


13) Remembering major life milestones are recalled by what bets you made that day.


12) Rooting for favorite childhood teams is no longer possible because the new coach doesn’t cover more than 40% of the time.


11) You waited all year to bet the Pro Bowl over 89 and somehow claim losing a bet by 6+ touchdowns was a bad beat.


10) Social calendars are disregarded in order to accommodate any in-game betting opportunity that presents itself.


9) The 4 essential items you can’t leave the house without every morning: wallet, keys, cellphone, and Don Best rotation schedule


8) Sending money to Hector Gonzalez in Belize City, Belize happened as frequently during college as depositing into your savings account


7) When a date went well and she asked on the ride home what position you prefer without hesitation the response is teasers and futures.


6) The local Fedex guy received the nicest present of anyone on your holiday gift list.


5) In reference to real world purchases you’ve applied the term units, nickels, or dimes often confusing sales people. After all, financial decisions are governed by “how many bets” it will take to pay something off: movies, dinners, cars, etc…it’s all the same after a while.


4) Your bookie was in your wedding party


3) Every website you visit at the office is blocked by your employer


2) Diversifying a portfolio no longer means investing in a balance of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds but rather Korean basketball, Japanese baseball, and snooker


1) When friends in the financial industry talk about having foreign accounts you assume they’re referring to Pinnacle, Paddy Power, and Sporting Bet Australia


Source: Todd's Take

Tweet Visit website

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Chopra says:

Chopra says: "If you’re really spiritual, then you should be totally independent of the good and the bad opinions of the world…you should have faith in yourself."

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Dividend Achievers Series: Aaron's

Dividend Achievers Series: Aaron's
Dec. 23, 2014 1:05 AM ET | by Sure Dividend | about: aan | includes: big, mfrm, rcii

Summary

Aaron's is one of the few stocks that tends to rise in recessions.
The company is betting big on virtual leasing.
Will Aaron's be able to last through the headwinds affecting the leasing industry?

Aaron's (NYSE:AAN) is a consumer goods and electronics sale and lease company. Aaron's is the largest consumer goods and electronic leasing company in the US with a market cap of $2 billion; slightly larger than rival Rent-A-Center (RCII), which has a market cap of $1.8 billion. Aaron's is undergoing a transition with the recent acquisition of online consumer products leaser Progressive Financial.

Aaron's has not reduced its dividend payments since 1994. The company currently has a dividend yield of just 0.3%. Aaron's is a Dividend Achiever, as it has increased its dividend payments for 10 or more consecutive years. While Aaron's is a Dividend Achiever, its negligible yield makes it an unsuitable candidate for investors seeking current income.

Business Overview

Aaron's operates in 3 segments: Sales & Lease Ownership, Home Smart, and Progressive. A revenue breakdown for the company's most recent quarter by segment is shown below to illustrate the relative importance of each segment to Aaron's:

Sales & Lease Ownership: 71% of revenue
Home Smart: 2% of revenue
Progressive: 27% of revenue

The Sales & Lease segment is Aaron's largest by far. The segment contains both the company's store operated and franchised Aaron's stores. In total, the company owns or franchises 2,017 Aaron's stores. The stores generate revenue by selling or leasing (with monthly terms) consumer home goods and electronics.

The Home Smart segment was responsible for just 2% of Aaron's revenue in the third quarter of 2014. The segment consists of 82 company operated stores and 2 franchised locations. The segment differs from the Sales & Lease segment in that it focuses on weekly leases as opposed to monthly leases.

The Progressive segment generated 27% of sales for Aaron's in its most recent quarter. The segment consists of the recently acquired Progressive Financial company operations. The Progressive segment partners with existing retailers to provide financing for consumer goods purchases.

Competitive Advantage & Growth Prospects

Aaron's is really two businesses: a consumer household and electronics goods leasing company with about 2,100 locations, and an online financing company that partners with other retailers to offer leasing arrangements for consumer goods.

The company's brick and mortar locations are struggling. The company faces fierce competition from competitors including Rent-A-Center, which owns about 3,000 stores (nearly 50% more than Aaron's). The company saw comparable store sales decline 2.5% in its most recent quarter for company owned stores. For comparison, Rent-A-Center saw comparable store sales in the US decline 3.5% in its most recent quarter.

The consumer goods leasing business is experiencing headwinds as the US economy continues to strengthen. As the economy improves, consumers tend to have more cash and credit, with less need to rent their furniture and consumer electronics. Positive macroeconomic news for the US is negative news for Aaron's.

On the plus side, the company tends to do well during recessions, as consumers often find themselves in the position to lease their furniture and consumer electronics or do without. Aaron's saw its EPS rise nearly 50% from 2007 to 2010, during the Great Recession. Not only did the company's operations grow during the Great Recession, but Aaron's stock price rose as well. The image below shows Aaron's performance from the beginning of 2008 to the end of 2009 versus the S&P 500.

(click to enlarge)

Source: Google Finance

Aaron's Progressive Financial acquisition has positioned it well for future growth. Progressive Financial is experiencing rapid growth despite headwinds to the overall leasing industry. The Progressive segment currently partners with well-known retailers including: Mattress Firm (NASDAQ:MFRM), Art Van Furniture, Big Lots (NYSE:BIG), and Sleepy's. The company's management believes the potential market size for virtual leasing is approximately $24 billion, as the image below shows.


Source: Aaron's Investor Relations

Progressive Financial has significantly more partner locations than its smaller peers in the virtual lending category. The company currently partners with about 15,000 locations. Its nearest competitor, Why Not Lease It, partners with about 5,700 locations. Aaron's management expects blistering revenue growth of over 40% for its Progressive segment next year as it partners with new locations.

Aaron's acquisition of Progressive Financial will drive growth going forward. If traditional leasing sales are flat, the company will still see double-digit revenue growth from its Progressive segment alone. Aaron's carries about $560 million in debt and is expecting about $250 million in EBITDA for its full fiscal year 2014 for a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.24. The company's relatively conservative financing gives its progressive segment further strength and lending experience.

Valuation

The Progressive division is growing rapidly, but had a pre-tax profit margin of less than 1% for the third quarter of 2014. For the Progressive divisions growth to be valuable, it needs to demonstrate an ability to add substantially to the bottom line. The virtual leasing industry has low barriers to entry (as does the leasing industry in general), and is very competitive as a result. It will be difficult for Progressive to expand margins in this competitive environment.

Aaron's has a forward P/E ratio of just 14, making it a solid value for long-term investors. The company does have significant growth prospects ahead. The leasing industry is currently experiencing a downturn do to the improving economy. As a result, Aaron's stock is up just 6.3% this year, while the market is up 15% over the same time period.

Final Thoughts

Aaron's has an extremely low dividend yield. The company is experiencing rapid growth in its Progressive division, but this has yet to translate into profits. The company is also currently experiencing negative comparable store sales do to weakness in the leasing industry. On the plus side, Aaron's stock appears cheap at this time which could attract value investors.

Aaron's does not qualify for investment using The 8 Rules of Dividend Investing because it does not have a long enough dividend history. Nevertheless, the company makes an interesting choice for investors looking to hedge against recessions. Aaron's stock and underlying business has historically done well during recessions as leasing becomes more popular when the economy is in decline. The stock appears cheap at this time as well; investors could see gains from valuation multiple expansion.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it. The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
More on AAN:
Aaron's, Inc: Rent-To-Own Leader May Be Underestimating Bad Debt Expense
AAN • Yesterday, 12:30 PM • Celan Bryant
Aaron's: Opportunity To Dominate Both Traditional And Virtual Rent-To-Own Markets
AAN • Sun, Dec. 14, 1:38 PM • Mark Lin
Aaron's Vs. Rent-A-Center: Whom To Own In Rent-To-Own
AAN • Mon, Dec. 8, 4:47 AM • Michael Boyd
More AAN »

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Let life unfold

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Let life unfold

You put a great deal of energy and effort into moving your life in a particular direction. Show your confidence in all you’ve done, and in all you continue to do, by allowing life in this moment to unfold as it will.

Let go of your attachment to a specific result and let the good work you’ve done come to fruition. Though the results may not be exactly as you imagined them, they will surely bring the richness and fulfillment you seek.

You’ve done much to get yourself to this day. Now, accept the unique flavor of the day as it arrives in each moment.

There is much more you can do, with many new opportunities and possibilities coming your way. Accept this day, this moment, this time for all it is, and know that you can move positively forward from it.

Peacefully and thankfully let life unfold. As you do, continue to enthusiastically give your best to each moment.

This is your time to live, and to enjoy the positive difference your life makes. Let life unfold as it will, and delight in the new richness it continues to bring.

— Ralph Marston

Productive momentum
Other messages with similar topics:
Everything you have
Sweet success
The power of challenge

Read more at http://greatday.com/motivate/141223.html#QjwDgTjWR7VXKWrH.99

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A LEARNED MAN'S MOMENT OF ZEN. OHmmmm

A LEARNED MAN once went to a ZEN Master to inquire about this stuff, this priceless, yet sought after intangible thing, this so called ZEN he hears of. As the ZEN Master talked, the LEARNED MAN would  listen intently but frequently interrupt with remarks like, "Oh yes, we have that too," and so forth. Finally the the ZEN Master stopped taking and began to serve tea to LEARNED MAN; however, he kept on pouring and the tea cup overflowed. "ENOUGH! NO more can go into the cup!" the Learned Man interrupted.
"Indeed, I see, " answered the Zen Master. " IF  you  do not first empty your cup HOW can you taste my cup of tea?" 

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